Economic Forecast Whitepaper
Is the ITR 2030 Depression Forecast Realistic?
ITR Economics has forecast a Great Depression beginning around 2030. The strategy built on that forecast calls for exiting U.S. equities, holding cash, and rotating into foreign sovereign bonds until a 2036 trough.
This paper agrees the structural pressures are real. It parts ways on the mechanism — and on the strategy that mechanism produces.
Written by Christopher Arends, CFA® CMT® CAIA®, and John Gatewood, CFP® CLU®, with contributed monetary research from Patrick Newman, PhD, of the University of Tampa.
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